Good evening Forex friends! It looks like AUDUSD is pulling back from rally mode on broad US Dollar strength. Is this an opportunity to jump back into the longer term trend higher at a better price?
Fundamentally, Australia has been one of the rare economies that unexpectedly dodged a recession during the recent credit crisis. GDP rose 0.4% in the first quarter on a rise in exports and consumer spending. Other signs of strength include a rise in home loans and consumer confidence. Expectations are that the RBA may raise rates within the next 12 months. So, a lot of good things going on for the Aussie and coming up on the calendar we have employment data. This should cause a bit of short-term volatility in AUDUSD, and hopefully get me in at a better price.
Conditions in the US aren't as rosy as unemployment continues to rise, lending continues to be frozen, especially as bond rates rise, and the government continues to spend and grow the deficit like there's no tomorrow. With the Fed running the printing presses all day and night, I continue to expect demand for the US Dollar to fall in the medium to long term. We have retail sales and initial jobless claims coming up in the US trading session. Expect short-term volatility during those news releases as well.
Technically, the pair is pulling back from its rally and approaching an area of previous resistance and a rising trendline. Will this area hold as support? I don't know, but it is a high probability that a lot of traders will watch it to see what happens.
I plan to go long mostly on technical reasons and hopefully the Australian employment data will bring enough volatility to get me a better price. Here's what I am going to do:
Long AUDUSD at .7900, stop at .7800, pt1 at .8000, pt2 at .8100
Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.
Stay tuned for updates and adjustmesnts...good luck! :)
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